Planning Around Uncertainty

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Planning Around Uncertainty

by Mark Mullaly

May 27, 2008


The more uncertain the world becomes, the more we seem to value guarantees and absolutes. Nowhere does this appear to be truer than on our projects. While projects have become larger and more complex, the expectations being placed on them are progressively more demanding, particularly with respect to the cost and schedule associated with getting them done.
 
Project sponsors and steering committees want precise and accurate commitments of completion and cost, even while they acknowledge that there may be limiting or constraining factors on the project. Although project managers recognize the improbability of plans, we find ourselves accepting the mindset being imposed and presenting conclusions even where we know or fear they are unrealistic and unlikely.
 
Why do we allow ourselves to accept a version of reality at odds with what we know to be true? What can we do to more confidently present our projects and our estimates when we know--or at least strongly suspect--that there is a high level of risk that our estimates aren’t completely accurate given the variables?
 
Let’s deal with the question of why we allow ourselves to get bought into an approach that we know we can’t support.



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"No opera plot can be sensible, for in sensible situations people do not sing."
- W.H. Auden