Outlook for Crisis Project Management 2010

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Outlook for Crisis Project Management 2010

Bob Weinstein

October 22, 2009





Crisis management has become an important niche specialty. But the demand for crisis or emergency managers is greater now because there are more crises to contend with. A crisis is defined by the United Nations as either complex or natural, explains Lew Gedansky,vice president, governance and executive programs atthe Project Management Institute in Philadelphia.
 
 
Wars, regardless of the scale, are considered complex emergencies because they usually last a long time, and they’re not easily resolved. The Iraq War and conflicts in Palestine and Darfur are good examples of complex emergencies that will take a long time to resolve.Crisis management has become an important niche specialty. But the demand for crisis or emergency managers is greater now because there are more crises to contend with.
 
 
Yet differentiating natural disasters from complex emergencies is not always that simple, says Gedansky. The destruction of Manhattan’s Twin Towers on Sept. 11, 2001 by terrorists falls into a separate category because it was neither a natural disaster nor a complex emergency. Even though more than 3,000 people were killed and hundreds of first responders and relief workers suffered permanent injuries, it’s considered a one-time event that necessitated an immediate emergency response.
 
 
While Hurricane Katrina --which did untold damage to New Orleans and many cities and towns along the Gulf Coast --is classified as a natural disaster, technically it’s a complex emergency because New Orleans has yet to fully recover. Parts of the city have yet to be rebuilt, and thousands of residents were forced to relocate because they couldn’t find jobs.(To get a clearer picture of complex emergencies and natural disasters, visit the United Nation’s website ReliefWeb, which provides current information about complex emergencies throughout the globe.)
 
However an emergency or crisis is defined, crisis PMs rely on the same skill sets used by all PMs because they’re dealing with the same kind of stakeholder ecosystem, adds Gedansky. “There are many different types of people that have to be dealt with, each of whom plays a part or has a stake in the crisis. There may be indigenous people, local government, rebel groups and relief and donor organizations (nonprofit foundations). It translates to an enormous stakeholder group that has to be managed and communicated with.”
 
Because of the complexity of crisis projects, PMs managing them must have outstanding communication skills in order to first recognize all the stakeholder groups; second, determine their stake in the crisis situation; and third, figure out how to best communicate with them to keep them in the communication chain. Equally important, PMs managing crises in underserved, impoverished parts of the world also have to understand and respect local cultural, political and religious traditions, all of which add another problem to the communication puzzle.
 
Another big problem crisis managers face when dealing with disasters in impoverished countries is not being overwhelmed by all the suffering they see. “Staying focused so objective decisions can be made isn’t easy,” says Gedansky. “Crisis managers in these situations are not just managing a project--they’re managing a program, which is multiple projects, many of them being hampered by different agencies.” Each group or agency responding to an emergency is there for its own reasons. The task at hand is working with all of them so activities are coordinated so everyone achieves their goals.
 
Crisis management also requires program management skills--the ability to manage resources across multiple projects, says Gedansky.
 
Strong demand for crisis managers in 2010
Aside from the projected increase in disasters, retiring crisis managers will also create many new jobs, Gedansky. That, combined with the dearth of generalist PMs,spells incredible career opportunities for crisis/disaster managers. Where are the jobs? You name it. Virtually all industry sectors will be hiring crisis managers. The federal government--especially strategic agencies like the Department of Defense, the State Department, the CIA and theFBI--will also all hire crisis managers.
 
The growth of international business, for example, will trigger a continuous need for crisis PMs to manage complex emergencies. Large companies doing business on a global scale are taking disaster and crisis management very seriously these days, says Gedansky. Realizing that virtually anything could go wrong, companies are creating elaborate disaster/crisis plans so that virtually any crisis (cyber, terrorist or natural disaster) can be managed.
 
Then there are massive industrial projects that will need crisis PMs. “The decommissioning of a nuclear power plant over a 20-year period is a good example of a complex project requiring intense and careful planning,” Gedansky says. Massive infrastructure projects are planned for 2010 and beyond. Repairing our massive interstate highway system will be a top-priority project that will last several years. There are similar reconstruction projects taking place throughout the United States, all of which require complex crisis scenarios. Dealing with the threats facing any major long-term national project is a massive undertaking requiring PMs from many disciplines. Creating an effective disaster plan is only one component of these multilevel projects involving stakeholders from both government and industry.
 
From Gedansky’s vantage point, project management is far more complicated today than it was in the past. It’s largely because there are more variables to contend with. Working with diverse groups of stakeholders with different vested interests poses communication and collaboration issues, and implementation of projects is a lot more difficult than it was a decade ago.
 
Even though more colleges and universities are offering courses and degree programs in project management and the PMI is continually creating higher standards for certification--indicating proficiency in advanced PM procedures, protocols and disciplines--Gedansky says most PMs are what he calls “accidental project managers”.
 
These were professionals working in the industry for 10 or 15 years,” he explains. “They took industrial and business experience and moved into the project management profession. They learned to be PMs. So in a sense, they grew into their jobs.”
 
But it won’t be long before all PMs will be academically trained. Over time, this profession will follow the route of all other professions, where potential PMs will go straight from secondary school into college and will graduate with project management degrees. A masterer's or a Ph.D. in project management will carry a lot of clout with organizations and government,” says Gedansky.
 
The proverbial bottom line is that project management is changing. Neither real-world experience alone nor a degree in project management will be enough to land a decent job. Employers will expect candidates to have both. The magic combination of experience and a degree in project management will define competence.
 
Look for Part 2 and learn about another view of crisis management, plus conflicting views on the origin of the discipline.

Related Content
Outlook for Crisis Project Management 2010 (Part 2) - by Bob Weinstein (Oct 22, 2009)
Outlook for Crisis Project Management 2010 (Part 4) - by Bob Weinstein (Jan 18, 2010)

reviews

"It is interesting to see finally a convergence of skills. In my past experience, whenever I was called to help steer a crisis, two characteristics were involved: 1. lack of budget- from late 1990s on, I was often in multiple projects at the same time, as I was called to take over a budget (after initiation) or a project/relationship, and therefore the allocation was far below the need; 2d/wk was the usual 2. often, I was called as a "facilitator", to avoid using the name "programme manager" or "project manager"- while instead the activities that I was doing were, well, the classical project management activities (starting with identifying and negotiating the real scope) 3. also, with the release of PRINCE2 2009, I saw an explicit link with MSP (the programme management counterpart), where the "soft" skills (communication, negotiation, etc) are finally given their proper visibility; in the past, in most projects/relationships I was called to manager or recover, I was spending most of my time doing just those activities, and the usual visual paraphernalia of project management (Microsoft Project, Excel budgeting, ISO900X documentation tracking and audit trail, etc) was, frankly, smoke and mirrors to have the customers accept what could not be written on the contract (I had less than ten times contracts explicitly calling for a "negotiator" role) 4. I still have an issue with PM certification- too many junior PM that certify before they build experience have a "forma mentis" focused on the formal and the visual paraphernalia; I remember long ago listening to a podcast, on one of the certifications, stating explicitly that, while the PM job is 90% communication, that could not be measured, and therefore the certification exam focused on the formal 10% 5. last but not least: in crisis management, more than once I was on the second round of crisis management; why? because some negotiator/facilitators/crisis managers focus on the "closing", as it would be called in sales, i.e. declaring the crisis done, shaking hands, exchanging monies and so on; but really few focus on the long-term sustainability of the solution let's hope that there will not be yet another "formal certification" R"
Roberto Lofaro - Oct 23, 2009



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