The Top Ten Reasons Projects Fail (Part 9)

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The Top Ten Reasons Projects Fail (Part 9)

Frank Winters

November 5, 2003






This entry in the failure series is a follow-up to Part 8 regarding estimation. The topic deserves more thought and discussion, and I've had several comments regarding Part 8, so here's some more about estimation.

What is an appropriate confidence level?

Many believe that estimates with high confidence levels--I recommend striving for 95 percent -- are much more costly than those with lower confidence levels. So much more so that it just doesn't pay to routinely strive for 95 percent confidence.

 

A reviewer of part 8 likes to try for 80 percent. He feels that if estimates are consistently at 80 percent, a team should expect to miss the targets one time in five--a much better than average success rate, he said.



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Half this game is ninety percent mental.
- Yogi Berra